东吴学术大讲堂-Nicholas G. Hall
发布者：韩祥宗 发布时间：2019-05-10 浏览次数：383
【讲座题目】Robust Capacity Planning for Project Management（项目管理的容量规划）
【时间】2019年5月17日（周五）上午10:00
【地点】财经科学馆三楼EMBA教室
【报告人】Nicholas G. Hall
【报告摘要】我们认为在许多项目的规划中出现了一个重要的问题。项目公司经常使用外包供应商，这些供应商要求在实现任务持续时间之前必须签订容量保留合同。我们为公司的这些决策建模，给定部分特征分布信息，假定任务持续时间的最坏情况分布。一旦任务持续时间被实现，项目公司就会做出快速跟踪和外包崩溃的决策，以最小化总容量预留、快速跟踪、崩溃和完工时间惩罚成本。我们使用基于目标的最小化业绩不佳风险指数的方法对公司的目标进行建模。我们考虑了任务性能的相关性，以及崩溃和完工时间惩罚的分段线性成本。对于实际规模的工程，离散非线性模型的计算效率最优解是可能的。我们将模型的性能与鲁棒优化文献中的最佳可用基准进行了比较，结果表明，该模型对分布信息提供了更低的风险和更强的鲁棒性。因此，我们的工作在项目中实现了更有效的风险最小化，并提供了关于如何做出更优的容量保留决策的见解。
We consider a significant problem that arises in the planning of many projects.Project companies often use outsourced providers which require capacity reservation thatmust be contracted before task durations are realized. We model these decisions for a company which, given partially characterized distributional information, assumes the worst case distribution for task durations. Once task durations are realized, the project company makes decisions about fast tracking and outsourced crashing, to minimize the total capacity reservation, fast tracking, crashing, and makespan penalty costs. We model the company's objective using the target-based measure of minimizing an underperformance riskiness index. We allow for correlation in task performance, and for piecewise linear costs of crashing and makespan penalties. A computationally efficient optimal solution of the discrete, nonlinear model is possible for practical size projects. We compare the performance of our model against the best available benchmarks from the robust optimization literature, and show that it provides lower risk and greater robustness to distributional information. Our work thus enables more effective risk minimization in projects, and provides insights about how to make more robust capacity reservation decisions.
【报告人简介】Nicholas G.Hall是费希尔威尼斯欢乐娱人城v3676管理科学系的教授，俄亥俄州立大学集成系统工程系的教授。他拥有加州大学伯克利分校（1986年）管理科学博士学位，以及剑桥大学工商管理硕士学位和会计专业资格。他的研究兴趣是项目管理、激励、计划和定价，以及运筹学的应用。他在journals Ope发表了80多篇文章。
Nicholas G. Hall is Berry Professor in the Department of Management Sciences at the Fisher College of Business, and in the Department of Integrated Systems Engineering, at The Ohio State University. He holds a Ph.D. in Management Science from the University of California, Berkeley (1986), as well as B.A., M.A. degrees from the University of Cambridge, and a professional qualification in accounting. His research interests are in project management, incentives, scheduling, and pricing, and applications of operations research. He has published over 80 articles in the journals Operations Research, Management Science, Mathematics of Operations Research, Mathematical Programming, Games and Economic Behavior, Interfaces, and several other journals. His main teaching interest is in project management. A 2008 citation study ranked him 13th among 1,376 scholars in the operations management field. He won the Fisher College Pacesetters’ Faculty Research Award in 1998 and 2005. He has served as President of Manufacturing and Service Operations Management society (1999-2000). He has served on the State of Ohio Steel Industry Advisory Council (1997–2002). In 2018, he served as the 24th President of INFORMS.
